Monday, March 26, 2007

Belle of Belfast City

We overate, over drank, underslept and overbet on underpriced horses, but in the end I finished the meeting only £50 down, thanks mainly to Cork All Star and the distances bet coming in. Wichita Lineman was my only other winner on the final day, but a great time was had at the course on the Friday. The 5AM start and 3AM finish did take their toll, although not as much as the £7.10 pricetag on the fish and chip 'meal deal' at the course. When you add the £3.70 Smirnoff Ice I quaffed by the bottle at The Gallery later in the evening, you can see why the bank loan was needed. And it's a good job I didn't put it all on Ruby to be top jockey!

Non-Racing highlight of the day must be the lunchtime drink in the Irish Bar at Cheltenham Racecourse, where entertainment was provided by an Irish fiddler (a man playing the fiddle, not a peado called Paddy). St Patrick's Day seemed to fall slightly by the wayside after the previous 22 hours partying, although I did manage to squeeze in a couple of Guinness Red in O'Neills while listening to 'Wild Rover' and the crazy 'Belle of Belfast City' song.


Another group who overdrank and underslept are of course the England cricket team. Hopefully Freddie and the boys can stay off the Red Stripe long enough to beat Ireland on Friday. It would be a close call if it were a drinking contest....


Thursday, March 15, 2007

6.30AM Start

If you have done your b*llocks on my tips this week, you will be glad to hear I won't be posting tomorrow, as I shall be on the 6.30 AM train to Chelters. Dan will no doubt be paying for most of the beverages after his £400 windfall on Cork All Star. The only nag I have picked out so far is Exotic Dancer in the big one. All the stories from Gold Cup day and St Pats will be here on Sunday, as well as hopefully much aftertiming of winners!

Have a Guinness for me!

I Bet That You Look Good On The Dancefloor

The festival looked to be going from bad to worse yesterday, as the two favourites I backed lost and the one I opposed trounced the field by ten lengths. There is only one thing you can do in these circumstances - get absolutely slaughtered and put far too much money on a sentimental bet in the last. Then go crazy as it wins at a canter. Cork All Star saved me big time. Unfortunately, I was so pissed that I went home early and missed a cracking night out.

Level for the meeting thanks to Corky, my main bets today will be:- 2.35 Monet's Garden (jumps like an absolute stag round here), 3.15 Black Jack Ketchum (I am willing to forgive his last run) and 4.00 Moncadou (McCoy has sweated away to get to the 10st 3 needed to ride this for the big gambler JP McManus). Hopefully we won't need the sentimental bet on Rhinestone Cowboy in the last to pull us out today, but if so i'll be cheering louder than most!

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Photo P*ss Take

Yesterday was an absolute shocker with my luck at Cheltenham drying out completely. Ameretto was cruising in the first before finding nothing, Twist Magic would have been placed if not falling two out, and the 4.00 saw my two nags pulling clear round the bend only to be ousted out in a 3 way photo! Detroit City, however, was just total sh*t and wouldn't have won for all the luck in Ireland.

So, for the first festival I can remember I ended day 1 without a winner. There is plenty of time to bounce back, and Aran Concerto has been trotting up in Ireland all winter so can be backed in the first. A small win and place also goes on Tidal Bay as it has winning Cheltenham form up the hill but may find one or two too good.

In the second I will take on Denman and instead back Snowy Morning and Ungaro. The nap of the day will be Well Chief in the Queen Mother Champion chase. If it shows anything like it's 2004 and 2005 form it will tear these to pieces. After that I will attempt to pick a Coral Cup winner through a Guinness induced haze, before the sentimental bet on Cork All Star in the last. This was the horse that we saw pick up a poxy little bumper at Cork racecourse on Dan's stag do, winning us 500 euros in the process. Yates has already got £50 on for today's race, so if my tips go down again hopefully he will be buying the drinks tonight!

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Put Your Hands Up For Detroit

Walking to the local newsagent today it was apparent that the neighbourhood was awash with festival fever. Well, the lazy-arse builders at the end of our street were reading the Racing Post anyway. The traditional pre-festival bacon buttie has been digested and it's time to post my tips before starting on the Guinness.

I'm always a bit wary when you look through the form and a number of favourites stand out, but I believe this Cheltenham could emulate 2003 with a number of jollys hosing in. We have two such animals today, Ameretto Rose in the opener and Detroit City in the big one.

Ameretto absolutely cantered in last time out on heavy ground, and on this performance plus its 7lb allowance must rate a bet. Currently 3.5 on BF, the only thing that makes me not absolutely lump on is the unknown quantity of the opposition. A small interest is advised. I will also be punting on Tipperary All Star, as it has winning Cheltenham form in the November meeting and 22/1 is a big price.

One horse I will be lumping on is Detroit City (3.15). This horse is proven around Cheltenham, and his main two rivals look to have slight chinks in the armour. Brave Inca's performances have not set the world alight this year, and can Hardy Eustace do what only one horse has done before and regain the champion? I think not, and the only worry for me is that the last 71 five year olds to contest this race have been beaten. I am going to trust my eyes rather than the trends this time, and lump on this nag.

In the 2.35 French and German bred horses generally excel, and the German bred Fair Along (4.5) will be my main bet, with a couple of place bets on the French bred Good Spirit (6.6) and Twist Magic (5.5). The video evidence favours Fair Along also. In the 4.00, we have a race traditionally won by an in-form horse, prominent in the betting with less than 11 stone to carry. Distant Thunder fits the bill at 9.6, and although Juveigneur is heavier, he has winning Chelters form and is worth an interest at 8.8. The actual favourite has only won 1 out of the last 18, so lets hope there is not a big gamble on these two nags! I will also be having a small interest on festival winner King Harald at 42.

Good luck whatever you are punting and let's hope Detroit City has us all singing at 3.30.

Distance Dilemma

After studying the trends for Chelters over the past few hours, it is now time to try and figure out the Cricket World Cup punting puzzle. I have finally turned to stimulants (pictured) in the battle to keep sharp while pouring over the form. Topical name, eh?

Yesterday was spent in the boozer watching a cracking FA cup QF between Spurs and Chelsea, an amazing win for a patched up England in the rugby, and then a sneaky win for the glory hornet boys in the last game of the day. I found a boozer that sells the new Guinness Red, and it is thouroughly recommended. Get to your local O'Neills early on St Pats and down a few pints of this oaky firewater before the crowds arrive.

On to Cheltenham, and the best bet I have unearthed on the trends is on Betfair's 'Festival Win Dist' market, which is settled on the cumulative winning distances from the 24 races. The three options are:-

Under 65 Lengths 7.2
65 - 80 Lengths 3.2
Over 80 Lengths 1.75

The last 2 years this has made up at around the 70 mark, and in the past winning distances have been traditionally short due to the competitive nature of the meeting. The reason for the odds-on is that this is the first festival for years where we have soft ground. The softer the ground, the further apart tired horses finish. The ground seems to be drying throughout the week however, and as the horses involved are not selling platers at Taunton but high class beasts, so I can't see a massive deviation from the norm. Lay the 1.75 and have a little bit on the 3.2 middle bracket which is good value.

One race where there could be a large winning distance is the Queen Mother champion chase on Wednesday. This seems to be a race won either by a nose or a street, and with a potential superstar performance from Well Chief on the cards, I have had a bit of Skybet's 14/1 about this being the race with the largest winning margin.

I'll be posting my daily picks on here before lunch.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Pure Genius

After a trip to the bank on Wednesday morning, I have secured a loan to fund my Cheltenham gambling and Guinness drinking session next week. I assured the bank loan officer that I would pay him back when I won the National Lottery (he assumed I was joking) and in 20 mins the cash was wired through to my account. The main stumbling point in the meeting was that the chap's 'Reason for Loan' computer dropdown did not include 'Gambling', 'Alcoholism' or 'To lump on Ruby for top jock'. So 'Debt Consolidation' had to do (thinking ahead - as always). If anyone sees me out in York next Wednesday with a bottle of bubbly in one hand and a stripper in the other, tell me I am going too far.

As today will be the last day at work for myself and other like minded individuals, you can while the day away by watching old festival coverage:-

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Cheltenham+Festival&search=Search

Stare aimlessly at the countdown clock:-

http://www.cheltenham.co.uk/

Or take the BBC's 'Are You A Compulsive Gambler?' survey to assess your current level of degeneration (Ignore question 9.......) :-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/5010172.stm

Post your results as comments - I scored a shockingly low 5/20. Must try harder at addiction.